供应链中的牛鞭效应 用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！

供应链中的牛鞭效应 用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！
供应链中的牛鞭效应
用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.
想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！

供应链中的牛鞭效应 用英语解释牛鞭效应的一句或一段话.想要解释原理的一段话，不是介绍名字的！
The Bullwhip Effect (or Whiplash Effect) is an observed phenomenon in forecast-driven distribution channels.The concept has its roots in J Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester Effect.Since the oscillating demand magnification upstream a supply chain reminds someone of a cracking whip it became famous as the Bullwhip Effect.
Because customer demand is rarely perfectly stable,businesses must forecast demand to properly position inventory and other resources.Forecasts are based on statistics,and they are rarely perfectly accurate.Because forecast errors are a given,companies often carry an inventory buffer called "safety stock".Moving up the supply chain from end-consumer to raw materials supplier,each supply chain participant has greater observed variation in demand and thus greater need for safety stock.In periods of rising demand,down-stream participants increase orders.In periods of falling demand,orders fall or stop to reduce inventory.The effect is that variations are amplified as one moves upstream in the supply chain (further from the customer).This sequence of events is well simulated by the Beer Distribution Game which was developed by the MIT Sloan School of Management in the 1960s.
The causes can further be divided into behavioral and operational causes:
Behavioural causes
misuse of base-stock policies
misperceptions of feedback and time delays
panic ordering reactions after unmet demand
perceived risk of other players' bounded rationality
Operational causes
dependent demand processing
Forecast Errors
adjustment of inventory control parameters with each demand observation
Lead time Variability (forecast error during replenishment lead time)
lot-sizing/order synchronization
consolidation of demands
transaction motive
quantity discount
trade promotion and forward buying
anticipation of shortages
allocation rule of suppliers
shortage gaming
Lean and JIT style management of inventories and a chase production strategy